Here is my own fancy economic indicator assessment for a country. I developed these 30 years ago when I backpacked through Europe with a friend. I used in the early 90’s when I went to Poland during the Solidarity movement. And, again I used it in Bosnia as Fulbright Teaching Scholar in 2005. Now I am thinking I need to use it in the US as we face our own economic resurgence.
I always begin by checking to see if there are ice cream shops all over the place and if there are multiple flavors of ice cream. Do the bakeries have many varieties of bread, or is it just plain old, delicious but basic, peasant style loaves? Are there cakes and cookies with delicately decorated tops, sometimes prettier than they are tasty! Are there hypermarkets that look a lot like Costco or Sam’s Club with all kinds of fat free or skim milk or gluten free labeled foods?
But along with all the choices and options and more westernized grand scale shopping options are there are also places where skinned lambs, or ducks, or pig heads, are hanging on hooks, not refrigerated? Are these meats soon to be sold or even roasted in some big glass furnace-like thing right on the street? Are there still the small farm stands with older women and men, who probably aren’t as old as you think or are far older than you could even guess, selling just enough for dinner tonight? Are these options all together within walking distance from each other or are the neighborhoods very separate?
Are fancy cakes and sweets and hypermarkets in the neighborhoods for tourists or expats living abroad or the upwardly mobile of that city? Are these the neighborhoods around the city centers or out in emerging neighborhoods or in exclusive city enclaves? Clearly there is the possibility that both kinds of shops can coexist but I think it requires a bit of deliberation that often isn’t considered until it might be too late.
I judge a city’s economic health by access to thrift stores with second hand clothing, furniture and household good. You have to have some disposable income if you can dispose of your “goods” to these shops or if you can afford to purchase someone else’s “goods”. If my experience is at all indicative of an economic emerging process then the first step is that much of this second hand thrift, used clothing and other stuff, comes from somewhere else; because the country doesn’t have enough to give away or is steeped in an ethic that uses something until it is unusable.
In Poland and Bosnia, Germany was the source of the original “thrift” sold in these stores. While this second hand or thrift market is emerging for the average working family, at the same time the group who seems to have much of the disposable income is the teen market. Now just after the emerge of the thrift market, we can see things like the British shop Miss Selfridges, United Colors of Benetton’s and many high end Italian fashion boutiques, comparable to the kinds of shops you would see in Lincoln Park or Woodfield Mall in the Chicago area. So there an emerging market economy and some retail industry emerging even as unemployment is still very high.
These are the indicators I use when I am traveling and they have in fact served me well as very quick and albeit general snapshot of life in a particular location.
But as the US faces its own very serious economic downturn can I use the same indicators to judge our movement upward? Is the variety of ice cream or bakery goods the right indicator, or might it be the number of people who now shop at those thrift or second hand stores. Could it be the escalating prices in the thrift stores as they become the first stop on any shopping spree? Is the movement back to shopping locally and getting just enough for dinner tonight a move that helps us keep track of our spending but also supports our neighbors and friends?
I am still working on the answers to this question, and will keep you posted.
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